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UFC 299 is in Miami and is one of the biggest fight cards we have seen in a long time.
The card is headlined by Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera.
The two fought in the past, with O’Malley suffering an ankle injury that led to Vera’s victory via TKO.
O’Malley is a larger favorite coming into this one despite losing that bout in August 2020.
We dive into that fight and many more, with UFC 299 featuring 14 fights.
UFC 299 odds and picks
O’Malley is one of the few favorites above -200, unlike last week, when saw multiple favorites easily cash in at -500 or higher.
We were five minutes away from an 18/1 winner last week, but Shamil Gaziev seemingly quit after the fourth round, with Jairzinho Rozenstruik well in control and he grabbed a TKO victory.
Still, it was a profitable night at the office, which could’ve been a career night. We went 2-2, with 1.45 units of profit.
We brought our season total to 7-10, winning 6.91 total units and 46.69 percent ROI.
UFC 299 begins at 6 p.m. ET, with the early prelims, and at 8 p.m. the prelims go over to ESPN before moving to PPV around 10 p.m.
Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera prediction
(-275/+220)
If you’re looking to bet “Chito” Vera, you’re not doing it pre-fight. O’Malley is a historically fast starter and Vera is a very slow starter, so you could absolutely grab Vera around 10/1 after the second round.
O’Malley absolutely dominated the first fight between these two before seemingly rolling his ankle, and a few missteps later he could no longer stand; Vera landed a few elbows and the fight was over.
Vera won by TKO, but it sure seemed like O’Malley was about to put on a master class in a TKO victory.
It is wise to expect more of the same despite the odds continuing to move, with O’Malley opening at -198 and getting near -300 on some books.
If this fight gets there, a bet on Vera during round three is a fine bet — but not pre-fight.
Expect O’Malley to end this one early.
PICK: O’Malley wins in rounds 1, 2, 3 (+400, FanDuel)
Dustin Poirier’s career is on the line against Benoit Saint-Denis. Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint-Denis prediction
(+180/-225)
Poirier is a wonderful bet here pre-fight, a fast starter that has plenty of volume early.
What is troublesome in this five-round bout is that Poirier has given up in grappling exchanges a few times, notably against former champ Charles Oliveira, when he clearly won the first round before dropping round two and tapping to a standing rear-naked choke at the beginning of round three.
This is my expectation for the fight.
Poirier is going to have a tough time knocking out Benoit Saint-Denis, an ex-French special forces-turned-fighter.
Saint-Denis wins as this fight moves forward into the later rounds.
PICK: SGP: Saint-Denis wins in over 1.5 rounds (+120, Bet365)
Jailton Almeida is going to grapple with Curtis Blaydes at UFC 299. Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Jailton Almeida vs. Curtis Blaydes prediction
(-108/-112)
The featured bout of the prelims features Curtis “Razor” Blaydes vs. Jailton Almeida, a highly touted prospect in the heavyweight division.
Blaydes has been knocked out many times lately, and there’s a lot of concern about whether his chin has gone by the wayside. Almeida isn’t the best striker to take advantage of this, but he loves to grapple and Blaydes won’t shy away from that side of his game either.
You may remember that Blaydes and Alemida were supposed to fight in November 2023 and Almeida was a -188 favorite in that fight. Almeida dominated Derrick Lewis as a fill-in for that fight.
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For reasons that are unclear, Almeida is down to -110 against Blaydes here, which is probably the fair line.
There is plenty of value here on the star prospect; Almeida hasn’t closed lower than -375 since he got on the UFC roster.
He’s a stud prospect, and Blaydes just hasn’t done enough to earn anyone’s trust in this spot.
PICK: Almeida ML (-108, Caesars) | Almeida by submission (+380, BetRivers)