Bayern Munich vs. Lazio prediction: Champions League odds, picks, best bets for Tuesday

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Bayern Munich could be in a world of hurt come Tuesday evening.

Already enduring a disappointing season in the Bundesliga, the Bavarians trail Lazio, 1-0, ahead of the second leg of their Round of 16 match in the Champions League.

Bayern is still a prohibitive -285 favorite at DraftKings to advance. It is -360 to win the match in three-way betting, but that number feels like poison for a few reasons.

Bayern Munich’s Joshua Kimmich argues with a referee during the UEFA Champions League last 16 first leg between Lazio and Bayern Munich on Feb. 14, 2024. Lazio won, 1-0. AFP via Getty Images

First, Bayern just isn’t playing up to its standards this season.

The Bavarians have won 11 Bundesliga titles in a row, but they’re 10 points behind Bayer Leverkusen with 12 matches to go and are mired in a 1-1-3 (W-D-L) stretch across all competitions. 

The disappointing campaign has already led to the club and manager Thomas Tuchel to announce he will leave in the summer, and there are plenty of rumors that the players hope Tuchel departs before that.

Bayern had been the picture of stability for decades, but things are in disarray.

Another reason to be skeptical that this will be one-way traffic is that Lazio will be happy to sit deep from the opening kickoff.

The Italians know that there’s only one realistic path to success in this match and it’s to park the bus and force Bayern to break it down. That’s not how Bayern wants to play.

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In short, this looks like a classic case of a “must-win tax” being baked into the market.

Bayern has shown time and again this season that it can lose to anybody. Take a shot on Lazio to win in 90 minutes at a big price. 

THE PLAY: Lazio (+950, FanDuel)

Michael Leboff handicaps soccer for Action Network. 

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